MODELING THE TREND OF PATIENT ATTENDANCE IN PRIMARY HEALTH CENTRE USING LEAST SQUARE METHOD

1. NWAGOR, Peters & 2. OKORO, Joyce Adaobi
1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics,
Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rivers State
2. Department of Mathematics,
School of Science, Federal College of Education (Technical), Omoku, Rivers State, Nigeria
Corresponding Email: joyce.adaobi@fcetomoku.edu.ng

Abstract
The study used least square model to investigated the patient attendance in Model Primary Health Centres (MPHCs) in Rivers State. With the application of nonlinear regression models, whose
parameters were determined with the least-squares method. It was found that a logarithmic nonlinear model proved the best fit for the source data and the parameters α=40.460 and β= 1.270 gave rise to the model as N(t)= (40.458)(1.265)t
, revealing an annual increase rate of 26.5%. The model had
26.02% mean error, reflecting 73.98% accurate fit. The model was used to forecast the patients attendance from 2015-2020. An estimate of 346 patient attendance annual increases aimed the
research to recommend for government’s expansion of health care infrastructures, more health personnel should be adequately trained to meet the manpower need of the health institutions and that
there should be public awareness to encourage rural dweller to readily access the Model Primary Health care’s because a healthy nation is a wealthy nation and further studies in the area of factors
militating against patients’ accessibility to MPHCs in Rivers State was advocated.
Keywords: Least square method, modelling, Primary health centre, trend.
Introduction.